New India: Yet another Goal Post !


new india As per the latest figures released by RBI the GDP for the last quarter fell from 7.9 to 5.7 % as exactly predicted by former PM Dr Manmohan Singh even while he along with highly acclaimed economists had to face rhetoric of “Hard work Vs Harvard”. We spent 8000 crores to print new currency and got only 16000 crores in terms of no deposits. Besides this lost 35000 crores which RBI would have given as dividend to the central government. 104 People died in long queues. Unorganized Economy suffered as for many weeks, millions of small traders struggled to find working capital and many of them may have gone out of business permanently. RBI autonomy and credit ability took a down slide. Real Estate suffered as they could not pay wages to the laborers.

The claim that counterfeit currency would be exposed also fell flat as it’s less than 0.0007 percent of the cash taken in. It was told that demonetization would “break the back of terrorism” by cutting off sources of funding. Though the stone pelting in Kashmir stopped but still this has been among the bloodiest summers for Indian security forces in Kashmir.

Within days of the demonetization  a dozen methods to launder piles of cash had been devised in connivance with few corrupt bank officials   and the government was taken off guard and was  forced to change policies every day to such an extent that there were around 50 rules were changed.

Out of 18 lakh people questioned by the tax officials almost 9 lakh have already replied and rest could be many big small business groups which may have deposited huge cash which was all accounted for and was legitimate money.

India’s government has learned no lessons from this disastrous move. In fact it need not learn any lessons as voters easily bought the idea and ensured success at the ballot box. Government misled people. No one knows the purpose, the objective. No one took responsibility. None knows whose decision it was. And we live in a democracy. In any other country, this would have been treated as treason and those responsible jailed for life. Under constant pressure by media and opposition parties the government kept on changing goal posts from eradication of black money, counterfeit currency and death blow to terrorism to cash less economy to less cash economy and now the latest master move is New India By 2022. The idea is being floated and tested to be sold. Wait and watch how many of us buy it

Demonetization : The ill conceived move

downloadAs per the annual report by RBI only 8.9 crores notes of Rs 1000 rupee currency have not come back to the system out of a total of 670 crores notes that were in the circulation as on November 8, 2016. It is barely 1.3 percent of Rs total currency notes that didn’t return after the demonetization exercise. Only 16000 crores did not return to the system though our PM during his speech on Independence Day had put this figure at 300000 crores. Our finance Minister always talked about huge gains in the tune of lakh of crores as the government initially hoped that only about 11 lakh crores will be back to the system and rest of the money will be gain given to the government by RBI

This had given credence to the allegation of the opposition parties that the alleged black money has been deposited back to the banks using different routes in connivance with the bank officials and also using Jan Dhan accounts. For apparent reasons the RBI has so far shied away from disclosing the actual numbers quoting reasons that counting is still going on. Even a layman knows that the bank officers keep on counting the currency when it is deposited and making the bundles simultaneously so the delay by RBI in releasing the figures was only to give electoral benefits to BJP. By just riding on DeMo wave BJP ensured the landslide victory in UP and Uttaranchal. The government was successful in getting the support of masses as the people were made to believe that supporting DeMo is the only way to show true nationalistic spirit.

Our honorable PM rebuked the mass international intelligentsia by a rhetorical comparison between Harvard and “Hard work”. The poor were made to believe that rich people black money is being taken out and the long term benefits will be huge.

Our former PM Dr Manmohan Singh an internationally acclaimed economist predicted a slowdown in economy which actually did. Besides that large number of people lost job in unorganized sector, millions suffered in long queues and more than 100 died. The lack of planning in implementation was soon seen as on every day basis new guidelines were issued to the banks and the impression was given that it is only to ensure that people do not use unfair means to put black money back into the system. The latest figures belie the claims. Even the calibration of ATMs was not done and technical glitch was realized only later causing huge embarrassment to the government and also inconvenience to the gullible public. Where to spend Rs 2000 note was also a difficulty.

But the claims of government that DeMo will eradicate the black money, end terror and counterfeit currency have all fallen flat. The Kashmir is still on the boil and situation has only aggravated, soldiers are dying every day and economy has also gone down. It is high time that government should apologies on the ill conceived move.